2011 Preseason NFL: Sharps Are In The Game!
by
Scott Rickenbach
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Football Season arrives again starting August
11th. Yes, you read that right, it’s not the start of the
regular season but don’t make the mistake of ignoring preseason
football. There are plenty of good wagering opportunities that
are a part of the preseason and make it a favorite part of the
football schedule for many top sports handicappers.
I have enjoyed my fair share of successes in the Preseason and
this has been especially true with top plays. Yet, many times I
am asked how one can possibly bet on preseason football and how
one can possibly find “wagering edges”. For a little insight
into why top handicappers and sharp bettors are indeed involved
with Preseason NFL, please read on.
Much of the content in this article was in prior seasons’
articles but it certainly bears repeating as an important
reminder about the value of Preseason Football for your
bankroll. In this article we will be taking a look at 4 key
areas in preseason wagering: Information, Parity, Money
Management, Advance Preparation.
Information – It is certainly true that information is a
key part of handicapping any sport at any time in the season.
However, the importance of information carries more weight in
handicapping the NFL Preseason than perhaps any other sport and
any other season. The reason for this is because coaches will
actually say who they are playing in a particular game and for
how long. They generally are not so much concerned with winning
the game as they are with simply finding out everything they can
about every single player up and down their roster. Therefore,
any information you obtain about players and even game plans
during preseason is generally as solid as you will ever see.
Understanding the Quarterback Rotations and situations (is there
a battle for the #1 QB spot, etc?) is another key to success. If
the proper time is taken to research what each team’s coaching
staff is saying to the media in the days leading up to the game,
your investment of time can pay off in the form of big wins on
game day.
Parity – It is a common belief that there is a lot of
parity in today’s NFL and that can certainly help one to find
value when analyzing the preseason games. If you uncover that a
certain team is hungrier or has extra motivation or has a lot of
battles going on for starting spots or roster spots, you’ve
often uncovered that little extra incentive that will lead to a
point spread win. Don’t ever underestimate how well a bad team
can perform in preseason. In many past seasons, we’ve all
witness poor teams that have had great pre-seasons before then
showing their true level of play in the regular season. Also,
many times the most talented teams in the league are the ones
that struggle in preseason against the spread. What do they have
to prove? That brings us to the next point about parity:
Coaching. If a team has underachieved in the past and now has a
new coach you can generally expect he will want to come in and
win the favor of the fans and management by getting wins in
preseason. The new coach (especially a young one or one who is
involved with a poor team that needs wins immediately) is much
more likely to put a little extra incentive on game planning
than a veteran coach on a better team with nothing to prove in
August! With most teams so close in talent level (again…it’s the
parity of the NFL); this extra coaching edge can carry a lot of
weight in August!
Money Management – The goal of wagering on preseason
football is to build that bankroll for the regular season which
will be here very soon with the kickoff of College Football on
September 1st. That said, by applying the right techniques and
principles one should turn a profit more often than not in the
preseason. However, it is a long football season and you don’t
want to blow your bankroll during a losing run in August, you
want to enhance your bankroll so you can enjoy a profitable and
enjoyable football season all the way through the Super Bowl.
This money management section is merely a reminder that sports
wagering can be very streaky and it is always best to have a
good plan in place with your bankroll prior to the start of the
season. Pace yourself and never play amounts that are too high
of a percentage of your bankroll. You want to stay “in the game”
and not risk being on the edge of being “kicked out of the game”
on a weekly basis!
Advance Preparation – In articles throughout the month of
August I will be putting out additional information about the
upcoming NFL season and what to expect from each of the teams.
By digging a little deeper into the QB rotations for Preseason
and coaching changes and personnel changes I should be able to
find some nice tidbits for August profits. The “take away” from
the upcoming articles is that preparation in advance is a key to
successful handicapping. Identifying teams to watch ahead of
time will certainly help when the lines come out week to week
throughout the season! Without a doubt, you can more readily
find value on the card when you have already done your “home
work”. More on this is on the way in the coming weeks so please
do stay tuned.
Thank you and best of luck always – Scott Rickenbach
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