Shopping for Line Value in the NFL Ben Burns Nov 2002

Week 1 of the NFL season saw five games decided by a field goal. Another game was won by just one point. Still, two other games were won in overtime. Usually overtime contests, in the NFL, are decided by a field goal, but, strangely, both of these games were won by touchdowns, on special teams. That means 8; of the 16 games, could, under normal circumstances, have been decided by three points or less; this despite the fact that 12 of 16 games flew Over the posted total (higher scoring games would generally indicate more lopsided scores).
On the upcoming Week 2 card, an amazing 14, of the 16 games, currently have point-spreads of five or less.

What do all these close games, and small point-spreads mean to bettors? 

Well, they show that the league looks to be closer, talent-wise, then ever before. As evidenced by the Texans’ Week 1 win, any team truly can win, on any given Sunday. More importantly, with the high percentage of games falling right on, or around the number, they mean that anyone not ‘line-shopping’ at more than one sports-book, and/or doing their best to bet their games at the right time, is really hurting their chances of being successful. 

If you are reading this, then you already know the importance of the getting the best wagering number possible. If one has an account at only one sports-book, there is no choice but to either accept the line offered, or not to bet at all. By using two or more sports-books, one can compare the lines, and wager on the line that provides the best opportunity to win. Why would anyone have bet the Jaguars at +3 early in the week, when +3.5’s and +4’s were standard closer to kickoff; or the Vikings at +4, when there were +4.5’s widely available off and on throughout the week? As you know, Jacksonville lost by three, and Minnesota by four. Both of these examples from Week 1 illustrate how important ‘line-shopping’ is to winning. Whether you were a winner or not, was determined by where, and when, you made your bets. These half-points, often make the difference between a winning and a losing season. 

While getting the best line is always imperative, it becomes critical on certain ‘key numbers’. Obviously the number ‘3’ is the most important. Last year, 17.3% of the games were decided by exactly a field goal. If Week 1 is any indication, that number could be even higher this year. Other numbers to pay close attention to are: 7, 10, 4, 14, 6, 1 and 13. Last year, 56.7% of the final scores fell on exactly one of these numbers. (Figure includes the # ‘3’). The point-spreads on 12 of this week’s 16 games have already touched one of the above numbers, at some point since the lines were released. A couple others are also likely to do so. Personally, I feel that line variances, even on these key numbers, are a lot more common than most people realize. The value of line shopping simply cannot be stressed often enough.

Once one has a few accounts funded, and ready to go, the real challenge is not in picking the best available line, but rather in predicting which way the line is likely to move throughout the coming day, or week. I take an enormous amount of pride in getting the best number on every game. It makes me sick when I hear of a friend getting a better line than me. Although I consider myself very good at predicting which way the line will move, even I don’t always guess correctly. Last Sunday, with less than an hour before kickoff, I was asked by someone whether he should go ahead and play Carolina at +1.5. 
Since I was still seeing a mix of 1.5’s and 2’s at my books, I told him to hold off, and hope for the 2. Within 20 minutes, the line was down to a pick’em at all his books, and he got stuck with a worse line. (I still got the +2 with a local who doesn’t move his lines) Thankfully, in that case it didn’t matter, as Carolina was one of the five teams that managed to win by a field goal. I generally tend to have a pretty good feeling for which way the line will move though. Naturally, if I expect a line to move, I will make a note suggesting to play right away, or to wait until right before kick-off before doing so. This note is released along with my selection. 

Conventional wisdom states that one should play favorites early, and wait until closer to kickoff before playing underdogs. The logic here is that most bettors prefer taking the favorite, so the line on the favorite will tend to go up. While this may be true more often than not; it is definitely not the rule for every game.

One method that I use to determine which way the line will move is to try and find out what side the ‘public’ favors. Every year I participate in a large weekly NFL pool, made up primarily of ‘squares’. Its not for much money, but it serves a valuable purpose for me. Since all plays must be in on Thursday, I get to know what all these ‘joe-public’ type bettors are taking well in advance of Sunday’s games. In general, if a high-percentage of them favor a particular side, barring injuries, that is the way the line will move. I also use consensus sites on the Internet for the same purpose. If everyone in my pool selected the 49’ers, and everyone on the consensus sites is also taking the 49’ers, then most likely I will benefit by waiting until right before kick-off before making my wager on the Giants.

I didn't even attempt to tackle college football in this article, but everything I have said about shopping for value applies equally there as well. 

Good luck.

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