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CBB: Ness Notes: NCAA Weekend Fallout-3/22/2010
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Last year's NCAA tourney saw just four "upsets"
(the official NCAA Record Book defines an upset as being a win
by a team seeded five or more places lower that the team it
defeated) out of 64 total games, the second-fewest total since
seeding began back in 1979 (record-low came in the 2007 tourney
with just three upsets). However, this year's tourney saw five
upsets in the first round, four of which came on Thursday. The
biggest of those five was Ohio's first NCAA victory since 1983,
as the Bobcats (14-seed) beat Georgetown (3-seed) 97-83. The
14-point margin of victory was the largest for a 14-seed over a
3-seed in tourney history (previous high was eight points).
Ohio's 97 points were the most the Hoyas have ever allowed in a
NCAA tournament game.
By the time the weekend was over, this year's tourney had
produced nine upsets in all, giving the 2010 tourney an
opportunity to challenge the 1986 tourney which owns the record
for most upsets in a single tourney. No. 11-seed LSU made its
Final 4 run that year, pulling a single-tourney record of four
upsets (over No. 6 Purdue, No. 3 Memphis, No. 2 Ga Tech and No.
1 Kentucky) before falling to No. 2 Louisville 88-77 in the
national semifinals. Eleven double-digit seeds have won games
this tourney and advancing to the Sweet 16 are three
double-digit seeds.
No. 12 Cornell is the first Ivy school to do so since Penn in
1979 and No. 11 Washington comes from the much-maligned Pac 10.
Still alive from the WCC is not Gonzaga, but rather No. 10 St
Mary's. The Gaels last won an NCAA tourney game back in 1959 (in
a 23-team field that year, the school's lone win advanced them
to the Regional Final) and had lost five straight NCAA tourney
games since that win, before beating Richmond (7) and Villanova
(2) this weekend. Cornell had been winless in four previous NCAA
appearances but the Big Red advanced with impressive wins of
78-65 over Temple (5) and 87-69 over Wisconsin (4). Washington
was a preseason top-15 team but struggled into late January.
However, the Huskies advance to the Sweet 16 on a nine-game
winning streak and have won 14 of their last 16.
Joining the above double-digit seeds in this year's Sweet 16 are
three No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds but just a single No. 3
seed (Baylor) and No. 4 seed (Purdue). Two No. 5 seeds have
advanced (Butler and Michigan State), as have two No. 6 seeds
(Tennessee and Xavier). There are no 7-seeds remaining (a No. 7
seed has never won) nor a No. 8 seed. There is however, a No. 9
seed left and that's Northern Iowa. The Panthers beat UNLV 69-66
on Thursday and then pulled the tourney's most prominent upset
so far, beating Kansas 69-67 on Saturday.
Kansas was the only No. 1 seed to lose this weekend and becomes
the first No. 1 seed to lose before the Sweet 16 since Kentucky
(to UAB) and Stanford (to Alabama) fell victim in 2004's second
round. It marks the 13th time a No. 1 seed of any kind has lost
in the second round and unfortunately for Kansas fans, it's the
third time it has happened to the Jayhawks. The NCAA committee
began assigning an overall No. 1 seed back in 2004 and with
Kansas falling short this year, just one overall No. 1 seed has
gone on to win the national championship these last seven years
(Florida in 2007 being the exception).
Kansas entered the NCAA tournament as a unanimous No. 1 in the
AP's final regular season poll and as I noted a couple of times
in the previous weeks, schools entering the Big Dance with that
No. 1 ranking have not fared well. The curse continues, as since
Bob Knight’s 1975-76 team (he last to finish a season unbeaten
at 32-0) entered that year’s tourney as No. 1 and won the title,
just five schools have finished No. 1 in the AP’s final regular
poll and gone on to win the title. The list includes Duke
(2001), UCLA (1995), Duke (1992), North Carolina (1982) and
Kentucky (1978). With Kansas' demise, that makes just five of
the last 34 AP regular season No. 1 teams (just 14.7 percent)
which have gone on to win the national championship that same
season.
No. 1 seeds did keep up their perfect record vs No. 16 seeds,
moving to 104-0 since 1985. They also went 3-1 ATS, giving them
an 11-5 ATS mark the last four years. No. 2 seeds also swept the
No. 15 seeds (now 100-4 all-time), going 2-2 ATS for a four-year
mark of 9-6-1 ATS. Playing the "big chalk" in the first round
has been a solid investment the last four years, as No. 1 and
No. 2 seeds have a combined ATS record of 20-11-1. Cornell was
the lone No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed, as despite all the TV
hype regarding 12-seeds, they are now just 33-71 (.317) all-time
vs No. 5 seeds. The only lower seed with a winning record
against a higher seed is No. 9 over No. 8, which should not come
as much of a surprise and could hardly be considered much of an
upset. Both No. 9 seeds won on Thursday but both No. 8 seeds on
Friday making the all-time mark 56-48 in favor of the No. 9
seeds.
There are 16 teams remaining and play begins again on Thursday.
I'll return Wednesday afternoon with a closer look but let me
note that while BYU ended its seven-game NCAA losing streak
(dating back to 1993) with a double-OT win over Florida in the
first round, the Cougars fell to Kansas St on Saturday. BYU has
now made 25 NCAA appearances, the most of any school without a
trip to the Final 4. Missouri ranks second (22) and Xavier third
(21). Of course, the Musketeers could end their Final 4 drought
this year with two more wins.
Missouri beat Clemson in the first round of this year's tourney,
before losing to West Va. It marked the Tigers' 22nd NCAA win
and moves them into a tie with Boston College for the most
tourney wins without reaching a Final 4. Illinois (not part of
this year's field) owns 38 NCAA wins, the most of any school
with a championship. Oklahoma ranks second (35) and Purdue, with
two wins this year, joins Texas with 33 NCAA wins but no title,
for third on the all-time list. Kansas State has two wins this
year and now owns 30 NCAA wins, tying them with Notre Dame for
seventh on the list that no one wants to be on.
Closing thoughts: While Northern Iowa's upset of Kansas sent the
biggest shockwaves through this year's tourney, Kansas is hardly
this year's biggest flop. That title goes to either Texas or
Villanova, in a toss-up. Texas earned the school's first-ever
No. 1 ranking back on January 11 with a 15-0 record. Texas upped
its record to 17-0 for the third time in school history and the
first time since 1932-33 when it beat Texas A&M 72-67 in OT on
January 16 (held its No. 1 ranking for a second straight week).
However, Texas would go 7-10 the rest of the way (3-14 ATS!),
ending its season with an 81-80 OT loss to Wake Forest in
Thursday's first round.
As for Villanova, the Wildcats moved to No. 2 in the AP poll on
February 1 for just the second time in school history (were No.
2 for two weeks in Feb of 2006). When they beat Seton Hall 81-71
on Feb 2, they were 20-1 (extending the best start in school
history) and were 9-0 in the Big East, also the best conference
start in school history. However, the Wildcats ended the season
by going just 5-7 over their last 12 games (3-9 ATS), escaping
with a 73-70 OT win against No. 15 Robert Morris in the first
round but then losing to No. 10 St Mary's 75-68 in the second
round. Star guard Scottie Reynolds made just 4-of-26 shots (15.4
percent) in 'Nova's two NCAA games this past weekend.
Oooops! The "last three teams in" on Selection Sunday were
at-large schools UTEP and Utah State (both 12-seeds) plus
Minnesota (11-seed). Butler used a 22-4 second-half run to blitz
the Miners and beat them 77-59. Utah State was never in its game
with Texas A&M, falling 69-53 and Minnesota lost 65-54 to
Xavier, shooting 30.6 percent from the floor. Maybe, Va Tech,
Miss St and Illinois would have been better choices?
Good luck, Larry
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