College Top 25: Most Overrated & Underrated - February
22, 2012
by Scott Spreitzer
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Each week throughout the college basketball season, Scott will
dissect the new top-25 rankings on Monday evenings and post what
he feels is the week's most overrated top-25 team, along with
the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he
feels should be in the AP top-25.
MOST OVERRATED RANKED TEAM: Wisconsin Badgers
I began this week's article with the thought that the pollsters
got it mostly right this week as far as the top-10 is concerned.
I could still make a solid argument that Duke doesn't belong in
the top-5, and I truly believe that. But with that in mind, I
also feel that the Wisconsin Badgers are currently overrated.
Wisconsin has been one of the more inconsistent teams when it
comes to perimeter shooting. They can look like "world beaters"
on night and look like they shot with the lights turned off in
the next. Wisconsin misses the outside shooting of Jon Leuer
with no one stepping up to take his place. The Badgers are still
one of the best teams in the nation on the defensive end, but
one has to feel that when they're challenged by athletic and
quick teams in March, their stingy defense will not be enough.
Wisconsin does play in the difficult Big-10, but they're just
8-5 SU in their last 13 games and they have suffered some ugly
losses, including those to Michigan State, Michigan, and Iowa.
The Badgers must stay focused on Thursday in Iowa and not look
ahead to Sunday's game at Ohio State or they could get swept by
the Hawkeyes. That's how vulnerable this team has been all
season. Wisconsin is this week's most overrated ranked team.
MOST UNDERRATED RANKED TEAM: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This is another situation where I could have gone with Wichita
State from last week. All the Shockers have done is win all of
their games since then. But after posting Notre Dame as an
unranked team that deserved to be ranked on a couple of
occasions, they're currently in the top-25, but not ranked high
enough, in my opinion. Since Mike Brey tweaked the Irish attack
and lineup, they have done nothing but win. The Irish have won 8
in a road SU, while going 7-1 ATS. Notre Dame has beaten
Syracuse and won on the road over West Virginia, Seton Hall,
UConn, and Villanova, while whipping Marquette by 17 in South
Bend. The Irish have held their last 8 opponents to 55.9 ppg on
38.3% shooting. They have been getting stingier on the defensive
end on the deep perimeter, holding their last 5 opponents to 16
of 79 3-point shooting, a connection rate of just 20.3%. Notre
Dame is playing as well as anyone in the top-25 right now, but
must be cautious when they host West Virginia on Wednesday. But
for now, Notre Dame is this week's most underrated ranked team.
UNRANKED TEAM THAT SHOULD BE RANKED: St. Louis Billikens
Last week, St. Louis shared this spot with Temple. We got the
Owls into the rankings this week, but the Billikens still remain
unranked. Since last week's article, Rick Majerus' squad crushed
Richmond and Fordham. While we expected the Bills to make it
past those two teams without much resistance, we still felt that
by doing so, they deserved a few more votes. As I stated last
week - and it deserves to be re-visited: The Billikens, at 22-5
SU, are just a handful of plays from a 26-1 SU mark. And all 5
losses came against teams that will be playing in postseason
tourneys. Rick Majerus has always produced Billiken teams that
were stingy on the defensive end as far as points allowed per
game. But before building this program to this season's level,
it was usually due to the fact that they had to play a
deliberate pace because of a lack of scorers on the offensive
end. Now that his program contains nothing but Majerus players,
they're holding teams to 56.1 ppg (7th in div. 1), because of
great defensive play. This year's version can score points. St.
Louis averages nearly 70 ppg on 45.7% shooting. St. Louis has a
great shot to finish the season with 3 more wins in as many
tries, facing Rhode Island on the road, hosting Xavier, then
playing at Duquesne. I believe by the time the regular season is
finished, SLU will be ranked in the top-25.
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