Conference Tourney Revenge - Buyer Beware!
by Tom Scott February 2006

With the conference tournaments fast approaching, you will read many game write-ups that assign a motivational edge to the team playing with same season revenge. I will tell you now to immediately remove that game from your play list. The reason is simple: The handicapper did not do his homework and is likely guessing at the pointspread winner of the game.

As you know, I have done more research into revenge than any handicapper in the country and I have found, WITHOUT QUESTION, that revenge, when taken at face value, offers NO EDGE AT ALL. Since 1990, all teams in conference tourney play who were playing with revenge from a regular season loss or pair of losses were 612-644-28 ATS in the tourney game. Where is the edge? In fact, teams playing with double revenge were 356-394-14. Even winning teams playing with revenge couldn't show an edge in the conference tourney (336-359-15 ATS). There are some cases where the team playing with revenge has a slight edge. For example, teams with a better Won/Loss% than their opponents were 127-105-5 ATS in tourney play but that's only 54.7% winners and barely over the break even point of 52.4%.

There's a reason that revenge doesn't work in the conference tournaments. If a team loses twice in the regular season to the same team, it is likely that the double loser is the inferior team and, no matter how much extra motivation it garners from that double loss, it probably will lose again. Here's a good example of what I mean. You would think that a winning team with revenge who is an underdog of +4 or more would have a better than 50-50 chance of covering in a conference tourney game. Those guys are 144-177 ATS. But what if you brought that underdog in off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, proof that he is at the top of his game? No deal. Those guys are 43-71 to the number and just 6-22 ATS when playing on the other guy's court.

I use 21 different conference tourney angles, each of which has posted a > 70% or better record since 1990 (You know who you want on your side in the > conference tourneys, don't you?), and only two of them use revenge of any kind as a condition of use and one of those two angle goes against the avenging team.

Here is the play against angle: PLAY AGAINST any winning underdog of +4 or more in conference tourney play who is playing with regular season revenge of any kind if he is either off BB SU/ATS wins (71-43) or his opponent is off an ATS loss (87-47). Note that when both parameters are in effect (the PLAG is off BB SUATS wins and the opponent is off an ATS loss), the angle moves to 30-9 ATS.

I have had a great deal of success in the conference tournaments. Check the Guaranteed Picks Page daily starting February 28th for my top selections.