The NBA Playoffs - The Easiest Game of All
by Tom Scott April 2006


Last year our powerful systems for this event produced a magnificent 67.4% record and our guaranteed picks on this site logged an incredible 13 wins out of just 16 calls to the post. This event is the easiest of all sporting categories to handicap. I have made a ton of dough over the last thirty years using only the systems that you will see right here in the following weeks. It would behoove you to check the Guaranteed Picks Page daily for my selections. That said, let us move to our first study of the NBA Playoff season.

THE BIG WINNER SELDOM REPEATS

The title of this article is more accurate in the playoffs than in any sport at any time of the year. Teams off those big wins just don't come back with the same fire in the next game in any sport but the rate of failure is significantly higher here, as you will see. I started this study by looking at all playoff teams who won their previous playoff game by 20 points or more. I was astounded to learn that, in the 143 games in which one team (BUT NOT BOTH) won by that margin, the big winner covered the spread in only 56 of them.

Therefore, we start our system with this simple premise: PLAY AGAINST any team in the NBA Playoffs who won their previous playoff game by 20 or more points. That record is 87-56 for 61% winners. Before I go any further let me insert a STOP SIGN! I'll explain again at the end of this article. Adding parameters to the basic premise gives us these results: If this is the first round of the playoffs - 40-23 for 63.5 % AND the PLAG (the team we are playing against) is favored by more than 3 points, 28-13 for 68.3%
AND the PLAG (the team we are playing against) has a WL% of less than .720, 20-6 for 77%

THE STOP SIGN EXPLANATION: In all my Tinder Box stories, I try to hone each system to a 75% or better win average. You should note those parameters that create those high percentages but to ignore, for example, the 61% that preceded it is foolish. If you can make 143 bets and win 87 of them, you are going to make a lot of money. My point is that, although I always bring the angle up to a high percentage, the money is made with the volume of plays at lower but still profitable percentage. For example, in today's angle, I gave you additional parameters that brought this system to a stunning 20-6 ATS record. That 77% angle looks great and is certainly worth remembering. However, the man who bets $100 a game on the 20-6 angle makes a net profit of $1340. The man who heeds the STOP SIGN
and bets $100 a game on the 87-56 system makes a net profit of $2540, nearly DOUBLE the money of the high percentage player. It's important that you understand that concept.

The numbers above come from all playoff games since the 1990-91 season, a total of 2232 games. Obviously, this angle doesn't come up every day (less than 7% of the games fit this angle), but it's well worth your time to wait for these plays and pounce on them when they do come up.

Once again, I remind you to check the Guaranteed Picks Page daily for my NBA Playoff selections. These time tested systems win every year. There's no reason to think that they won't win this season.