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Tournament Play Can Feature Fierce Defense and Revenge Spots
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Scott Spreitzer Mar 2005
One of the great aspects of March tournament play is the amount
of sidebars that can pop up with respect to handicapping. That
is, tournament play offers bettors many different factors to
analyze and digest. For instance, many conference tournaments
play three games in three days. Handicappers need to look at
this carefully: Does this team have the depth and bench strength
to play three games in three days? How have they done in back to
back spots during the season? Do they tire out in that second
game? If so, what were the reasons?
Depth was certainly a great asset for top-ranked Connecticut a
year ago. They have a very good team now, but remember last
season they had Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafur; talk about a team
with depth! Speaking of Connecticut, the Huskies are a good
example of another factor to keep up on in March, defense.
Strong defense requires all out effort from players, which is
not always easy to do. Sometimes during the regular season teams
will give a strong defensive effort in the second half after
coasting in the first half, or if the game is a blowout at the
half, they won't play all-out defense down the stretch.
This is less likely in tournament play, however, as the games
have far more importance. It's more common to see close games
and fierce defensive battles. A year ago, Connecticut went under
in two of their three Big East Tournament contests, holding
Notre Dame to 58 points, Villanova to 67 points and Pittsburgh
to 58 points. That started a 5-1 "under" run in March. The
Huskies had the talent to play tough defense all the time, and
really picked things up in the tournament.
Teams can also be meeting in the tourney for the second and even
third times. This can bring in potential revenge matchups, which
handicappers must keep up with. Note that Connecticut only lost
back-to-back games once all of last season. Those two losses
were road games at Notre Dame (as a nine-point favorite) and at
Pittsburgh. As scheduling fate would have it, Connecticut then
played them again in the Big East tournament. And the Huskies
went 3-0 both straight up and ATS in the tournament, shutting
down the Irish and Panthers to 58 points each game, after
allowing 75 and 80 points in those earlier losses. In fact,
Connecticut went 14-1 straight up on the way to winning the
title after those back-to-back Big East losses.
Wisconsin, too, turned on the defense a year ago on the way to
winning the Big Ten title, also going under the total in two of
their three tournament games. They thumped Illinois, 70-58, as a
one-point underdog in the title game. Do you think Illinois will
remember that one if they meet again soon? Another defensive
team to keep an eye on is Southern Illinois. The Salukis play
tough defense with a 21-8 "under" mark this season! In the
tournament a year ago, they kept it close against Alabama (65-64
loss) in a game that sailed under the total. Over the next month
the big college basketball upsets will receive much of the
national attention, but astute handicappers know that little
things, such as revenge, back-to-back spots and defense, can
help turn March plays into big winners.
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