NBA: Key angles that win cash - by Carlo Campanella Mar, 2004 Everyone agrees that game location is one of the most important handicapping factors when wagering on basketball. Many of my most profitable Key Angles are based on teams playing back-to-back road games and teams involved in multiple game home stands. It then came to me that the public doesn't consider points scored, or allowed, in a team's previous game as an important handicapping factor. I decided to do a season study in order to see how points scored by a team in its previous game affected the results of its next game. Below are the results of my study based on the entire 2002-2003 NBA season in which more then 2,000 games were played. How would a professional basketball team perform after allowing its opponent to score far more then an average amount of points, say 115 or more? It might seem logical that these teams would clamp down on defense, really taking pride in shutting down their next opponent, and therefore a solid wager for us. But that's not the case, as I found the entire league at 34-50 against the spread (ATS) after allowing 115 or more points in their previous game. That's a poor 40 percent success rate. If the team was also favored on the night it allowed those 115 or more points, it only returned at 10-17 ATS (37 percent) in its next effort. Interestingly, if that same team is also a road favorite in their next game, the Key Angle was just 1-5 ATS (16.6 percent) on the year. After learning the above information, I wondered how a team that had trouble scoring in its previous game performed in its next game. I decided that any NBA team should always put at least 70 points on the board, so I began to study the games where teams scored 69 or less last year. Interestingly, it only happened 28 times last season, but we found that these teams did play with some pride, or perhaps the players just didn't want to lose their jobs. These low scoring squads were a profitable 17-10-1 ATS (63 percent) when they returned from that lousy offensive effort. Interestingly, 22 of those 28 teams that scored 69 or less points did so on the road, probably not wanting to upset the home crowd. But, for teams that did score 69 or less on their own court, they knew that it would not be tolerated, and they returned looking to regain respect while posting a 5-1 ATS (83.3 percent) record. The study also produced another interesting Key Angle based on points scored. I found that when a team puts forth a solid offensive effort, in this case scoring 101 or more points, but still lost the game straight up, it took something out of the club. If that team returned as a favorite, it was just 21-39 ATS (35 percent) in its next game. If it had the benefit of getting points, it wasn't quite as bad, as it posted a 21-27 ATS (44 percent) record in the dog role. It's tough to score triple-digits in the NBA, and when a team does break that 100-point plateau, it needs to walk away with the victory; otherwise, it usually leads to a letdown during the next game. This study shows that points scored and points allowed in a previous game can be useful Key Angles. Simply 'playing against' a team that allowed in excess of 115 points in their last game would have produced 60 percent winners over the entire 2002-2003 NBA season. 'Playing on' the 28 teams that scored 69 or less points would have yielded you another 63 percent winning Key Angle during the year. It just goes to show that you should always be looking for new ways to beat the books, and that with a little research you can show some big profits betting professional basketball. Carlo Campanella, also known as the Iron Horse, has quickly made a name for himself in the industry.. Click here to check out Carlo Campanella's Guaranteed plays. As always the selection must WIN or there is no charge!!