2003 Triple Revenge in the NBA by MTi Sports This is the time of the season where season sweeps begin to come into play. In this article we will discuss only four-game inter-divisional sweeps. Triple revenge is a handicapping tool used by many handicappers. The theory is that a team that has been beaten three straight times by a divisional opponent will be motivated to prevent the season sweep. Is this a good handicapping strategy? First of all, over the past seven NBA seasons, teams with triple revenge motivation are 131-274 straight up losing by an average of 5.3 ppg. However, they have been favored by an average of 6.3 points per game which has resulted in an ATS record of 188-211-6 ATS failing to cover, of course, by an average of 1.0 points per game. So, playing on the team with triple revenge has produced 52.9% winners since 1995-96. This isn’t bad but a little investigation reveals a subset of these games where the triple revenger has performed well above the linesmaker’s expectations. The situation is when they are a heavy home dog. Double digit home dogs facing a team that has beaten them three straight are 17-6 ATS since the start of the 1995-96 season including 9-1 ATS their last ten and 5-0 ATS their past five. There have been no double digit home dogs seeking to prevent the season sweep so far this season. However, on 3/24 the Mavs might be a double digit choice in Denver and on 4/2 the Pacers might be laying 10+ in Cleveland.  Another profitable triple revenge situation is when a home favorite is seeking to prevent the season sweep. This is an interesting situation as the linesmakers have installed a team as a favorite vs. a team that has beaten them three straight. There has been one occurrence so far this season. On 2/26 the Timberwolves were at home seeking to prevent the season sweep vs. the Jazz. The linesmakers made them a 5’ point favorite and they did not disappoint winning 92-85. In fact, home favorites seeking to prevent the season sweep are a perfect 15-0 straight up and 13-2 ATS since the start of the 2001-02 season. The two ATS losses were by a half point and two points respectively. Upcoming games where a home team is seeking to prevent the four game season sweep and may be favored include: 3/28 when the Raptors host the Hornets, 4/5 when the Suns host the Timberwolves, 4/13 when the Bucks host the Pacers and 4/15 when the Blazers host the Suns. Play Smart. Play Informed. Play with MTi Sports.