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MLB
2011 Regular Season Recap + Playoffs Preview
by
Tom Freese
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With the MLB regular season
now complete, I wanted to take a minute and review who the
biggest money making and money losing pitchers and teams were
this year as well as offer a quick playoff preview for each of
the four divisional series
Biggest Money Making Pitchers
1. Ian Kennedy (25-8 TSR, +17.7 units) - By far the most
profitable pitcher to bet on in the 2011 MLB season was Ian
Kennedy of the Diamondbacks. He was six units higher than the #2
pitcher. Like the other two pitchers on this list, Kennedy will
be pitching in the postseason as Arizona takes on Milwaukee in
the NLDS. The team has won his last seven starts overall, but
beware that he had a 14-1 TSR vs. the NL West, a division that
sent no other teams to the postseason. Kennedy will get the ball
in Game 1 against the Brew Crew
2. Zach Greinke (20-7 TSR, +11.7 Units) – I am somewhat
surprised that Milwaukee’s Greinke is not getting the start
opposite Kennedy in Game 1 of the NLDS. Greinke was literally
unbeatable this year at Miller Park with a flawless 15-0 team
start record. I would be stunned if he did not get the start in
Game 2.
3. Justin Verlander (25-9 TSR, +11.4 Units) – For my money,
Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball and should be named
American League MVP. The Tigers have won 12 starts in a row made
by Verlander before they lost as a huge -255 favorite this past
weekend vs. Baltimore. (Verlander did not factor into the
decision.) Verlander will get the start in Game 1 of the ALDS
vs. the Yankees and CC Sabathia and will be an underdog. He was
an underdog only one time during the regular season and the team
lost 4-3 to Boston and Josh Beckett. Since May 19th, Detroit is
21-3 in games Verlander starts.
Biggest Money Losing Pitchers
1. Chris Carpenter (15-18 TSR, -13.0 Units) - Carpenter is the
only pitcher I want to touch on here because he will be the only
one pitching in the postseason. Carpenter was a disaster at the
betting window this season with a 4-12 TSR as a favorite of -150
or more on the money line and that includes a win in the regular
season finale at Houston. Incredibly, before that win, Carpenter
had an 0-8 team start record as a favorite of -175 to -250 on
the money line. Pitching against the Phillies in the NLDS, you
can bet Carpenter will not be a favorite.
2. Ubaldo Jimenez (13-19 TSR, -12.6 units)– Jimenez never looked
like the pitcher who started 15-1 last year for the Colorado
Rockies and was traded mid-season to Cleveland where he was a
disappointment there as well.
3. Paul Maholm (7-19 TSR, -12.0 Units) – The Pirates completely
fell off after the All Star Break.
Biggest Money Making Teams
1. Arizona (94-68, +26.90 Units) – the Diamondbacks were the
only true surprise division winner in baseball this year. The
market was slow to adjust.
2. Milwaukee (96-66, +20.90 Units) – the Brew Crew were dominant
at home this season, going 57-24 at Miller Park. When they are
-150 or higher on the money line there, they are almost
unbeatable at 34-6. Of course, it will be the two most
profitable teams in baseball with the two most profitable
pitchers in baseball meeting in the NLDS with Milwaukee vs.
Arizona.
3. Detroit (95-67, +18.45 Units) – It’s no coincidence that the
three most profitable teams in baseball each have one of the
three most profitable pitchers in MLB.
Biggest Money Losing Teams
1. Houston (56-106, -33.96 Units) – the Astros were atrocious
this year. They were the only 100 loss team in MLB. Words can’t
properly explain how bad this team was this year.
2. Colorado (73-89, -29.45 Units) – after a hot start, the
Rockies torched their backers, losing as big favorites many
times. The other two teams on this list had the two worst
records in baseball, so that shows how overvalued Colorado was.
3. Minnesota (63-99, -24.55 Units) – this was a shocker. The
Twins very narrowly missed becoming the first team to go from
division champs to 100 losses in one year in nearly a century.
Playoff Previews
Tampa Bay (+145) vs. Texas (-165)
How did the Rays even get to the playoffs? They trailed the Red
Sox by nine games the first week of September before pulling off
an incredible comeback, culminating in a thrilling win over the
Yankees (while Boston lost three minutes earlier) on the
season’s final day. The Rangers are the reigning AL Champs and
won the regular season series 5-4. Six of those games were in
Tampa and here Texas will have home field advantage. These teams
met in the ALDS last season with Texas taking the series in five
games. How much can the Rays have left in the tank?
Detroit (+125) vs. NY Yankees (-145)
I feel Game 1 will go a long way in determining the outcome of
this series. That’s because both teams will send out their
respective aces – Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia – each team’s
best pitcher by far. The Tigers took the season series 4-3, but
the teams have not met since May. Winner here will be the
favorite to win the ALCS, no matter who wins the other series.
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia
The Phillies are the prohibitive favorite, not only to win this
series, but the NL pennant. That being said, they did not play
particularly well down the stretch, losing eight straight before
sweeping the Braves and knocking them out of the playoffs. St.
Louis reaped the benefits of that Phillies sweep as they beat
Houston on the final day of the regular season and nabbed the
Wild Card.
Arizona vs. Milwaukee
This series isn’t going to get much attention, but as mentioned
above these were the two most profitable teams to bet on during
the regular season and have the two most profitable pitchers in
baseball. If Arizona “steals” one of the first two games in
Milwaukee, they have a great shot at “upsetting” the Brew Crew.
Be sure to check out Tom's
MLB Playoff Pick
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