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Betting Baseball Totals
by Big Al McMordie
Offense is down a bit this season in major league baseball.
There are many theories about this, from teams shoring up the
relief staff as many games are decided in the sixth, seventh and
eighth innings, to the decrease in steroids. Another factor
that's always worth considering is the ballpark. It's no secret
that the dimensions of parks play a role not only in how a team
plays but in how a team is constructed. When Whitey Herzog
managed the Royals in the 1970s and the Cardinals in the 1980s,
he recognized that both teams played in huge, pitcher-friendly
parks on Astroturf. They were not easy to hit home runs in, so
Herzog constructed his teams around speed and defense,
particularly in the outfield. One time a player on his team
stole a base even though they were leading 10-2. The opposing
manager yelled across the field at him for stealing with such a
big lead and then complained about it to the newspapers after
the game saying, "Whitey is showing us up and that's baloney."
So Herzog retorted, "Stealing bases is how we score runs. We'll
agree to stop stealing if he agrees not to hit any more home
runs."
When wagering on baseball totals, it's important to look at the
park, the defense and the pitching staffs, both starting and
relief pitching. Current teams with large, pitcher-friendly
parks are Safeco in Seattle, Dodger Stadium in LA, Comerica in
Detroit, Shea Stadium in New York (Mets) and the McAfee
(Oakland) Coliseum. The Mariners have constructed their offense
around speed while the A's preach drawing walks and on-base
percentage. They don't look to sit back and hit home runs.
Notice that the Mariners are 13-8 under the total at home this
season. Another pitcher-friendly park is in Florida where the
Marlins play. This is a strong defensive team in the field with
a terrific young pitching staff, too, and Florida is 13-8 under
the total at home. The new park in San Diego is also
pitcher-friendly, and the Padres are 12-8 under the total at
home.
Sports bettors carefully look at parks and numbers like these,
in addition to offensive production. For instance, the Astros
play in a small park conducive to hitting, but have lost a lot
of offensive talent from last season. Houston averages 4.6 runs
per game at home, but just 2.6 runs on the road. That explains
why this team is competitive at home, but simply miserable on
the road. The Phillies, too, play in a new, hitter-friendly
park. Notice the Phillies average 4.9 runs per game at home, but
3.9 on the road. Philadelphia is 14-5 over the total thus far at
home, with a weak pitching staff, and 14-9 under the total on
the road. Stats like these have reasons behind them, so don't be
surprised if the Phillies continue to be productive offensively
at home, but slip significantly on the road.
Which brings me to the Washington Nationals (the former Expos)
and their new park; this is a pitcher-friendly park and
Washington averages 4.3 runs per game on the road, but just 3.7
per game at home. Washington is 11-8 under the total at home.
Another team with improved defense and pitching depth this
season is the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs are 28-16 under
the total overall. The White Sox have been the surprise of the
American League with a devastating pitching staff that has them
rolling despite a not-so-great offense. The White Sox are 23-16
under the total (13-5 under at home). Dodger Stadium has always
been friendly to pitchers, and notice the Dodgers are 12-8 under
the total at home where the offense averages 4 runs per game,
but 12-8 over the total on the road where the offense busts out
for 5.7 runs per contest! Betting totals can be just as
profitable as sides in baseball, and knowing the parks can help
a good bettor turn a profit.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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