It Pays to Study Your History by Ben Burns July 2005 As a professional handicapper, in my never-ending "Battle vs. the Books", I am constantly looking for any possible advantage that I can find. Studying what has happened in the past is imperative, as history often repeats itself. Here is a recent example of how, by studying history, I gained an edge vs. the books. During the 2005 All-Star Break, with no games being played, I decided to look back a few years to see if I could determine any tendencies which had occurred the day after the All-Star Break. I chose to focus on Over/Under plays and decided to look back as far as the new Millennium. It quickly became apparent that the UNDER held a distinct advantage. During the five years that I had looked at, the UNDER had managed a highly profitable 43-23-3 record, including an 11-0-1 mark in 2004! 8-6-1 Under in 2000 9-6 Under in 2001 7-5-1 Under in 2002 8-6 Under in 2003 11-0-1 Under in 2004 8-4-1 Under in 2005 ***6-Year Record = 51-27-4! When I notice an obvious trend, such as the Under going 43-23-3 the day after the All-Star Break from 2000-2004, I always try and determine it's cause. Is there a logical reason for the trend? Or, could it be random coincidence. Don't forget that if you flip a coin enough times, you'll inevitably get some runs of 43-23 for both heads and tails! In this case, I felt that that I was looking at more than just pure coincidence. My initial thought was that the Under probably had done so well due to the fact that teams are often going with their #1 starter, unless he had just pitched in the All-Star Game. However, I quickly dismissed this line of thought as the oddsmakers have already factored the starting pitchers into their lines and adjusted them lower accordingly, with the aces on the mound. Instead, I concluded that the Under probably had been so profitable due to the fact that the hitters must become somewhat rusty after having a few days off. Starting pitchers are used to having numerous days off in between starts. Batters, on the other hand, rarely have consecutive days off. Some, of course, aren't affected by the layoff but others clearly are. Using the knowledge that I had gained from "Studying History", I decided to look for strong situations to play the Under on July 14th, the day after the All-Star Break. My handicapping process produced four picks, all Unders. When the July 14th games had been finalized, the Under had once again shown a profitable record, going 8-4-1 overall. Personally, I managed a 3-1 mark on my four selections. I wasn't quite finished yet though. I decided to apply the same logic, of batters being cold after a long layoff, to the following day's card. I found two teams, the Rockies and Reds, who hadn't played on the 14th, meaning their layoff was even longer. The July 15th Rockies vs. Reds game easily stayed Under the number too, as those normally high-scoring teams could only manage seven combined runs, four of them coming in the eighth and ninth innings. That gave me a 4-1 mark on my Under picks. When analyzing games, don't forget to add "Studying History" to your handicapping arsenal! Ben Burns finished the 2004 season as the #1 ranked MLB Handicapper at the Bigguy Sports Monitor. Ben is enjoying another highly profitable season and is currently on a 13-4 run! Even more impressive, Ben's Over/Under picks are now on a 17-5 run, and 67-39-4 dating back to the start of last season! Don't miss out on any of Ben's Daily Winners down the stretch. As always, all Ben's selections are 100% Guaranteed, meaning you pay only after you win!