MLB Handicapping: The Numbers Don't Lie Carlo Campanella June 21 2005 There's an old cliché that states "the numbers don't lie." Unfortunately, in the world of baseball handicapping, you have to know what numbers to look at. Let's take a look at just this MLB season. The New York Yankees are one of the most respected, and wagered on, teams in the league. With an impressive 36-23 record so far, they have beaten up on most of their competition, and you'd think that their backers would be laughing all the way to the bank. If you were to have wagered on the Yankees every time they stepped on the field this young season, you would have collected on a solid 62.1% of your bets, but you'd be down 18 units based on the Vegas money-line. In real dollar terms, if you wagered $1,000 on the Yankees in each of their 58-games, you'd be down around $18,000! As a Yankee backer, the best you could have done to this point would have been to wager on them only against left-handed pitchers, where they posted a 13-8 record and are still losing a half unit. Well, how about only when they had home field advantage? You would have posted a 22-13 record, cashing on 62.8% of your bets, but still in the red by 2.4 units. So, while the numbers don't lie, you have to ask them the right questions in order to make money betting baseball. I'm sure that some of you are reading this and thinking the Yankees are one of those high profile teams that are over-bet by the public and are often too heavily favored because the bookies make you pay a premium price to back them. That may even hold true about the Yankees, but what about the Minnesota Twins? Minnesota is an impressive 38-29 on the year, but even after winning 57% of your wagers, you would only show a profit of 2.5 units. While that's much better then backing the Yankees, you're still barely showing a profit. Oddly enough, if you were to have backed the Twins only at home this season, you'd be 20-15 (57.142%), but still losing 1.6 units. In fact, if you wagered on them only against division opponents you would have won the EXACT same percentage of your bets, at 16-12 (57.142%), but been financially better off, showing a profit of 2.7 units! Just as in the business world, finding the right niche is the secret to generating profits. Many low profile teams have hidden niches that will reward their backers throughout the entire season without ever getting detected by the mass public, or drawing the attention of the odds-makers. Here are a few of my favorites that fit into that profile: the Cleveland Indians are 27-21 against right-handed starters and are +6.8 units. Toronto is 15-10 against division foes and up +8.1 units. Detroit has a losing 15-16 mark on the road, but is giving backers +2.5 units. Milwaukee is 24-24 against right-handed starters but producing +2.9 units. The season is still young, but some teams are pointing us towards profit by "playing against" them in specific situations. For example, "play against" Anaheim at home, where they are 18-14, but are down -3.6 units. San Francisco is just under the .500% mark against right-handed starters at 16-20, but in the red -11.9 units. The Cubs are 34-33 overall this season but are dropping -4.0 units. It's much simpler with some squads who seem to be cash cows, generating a profit in almost every situation. These teams catch the eye of the public and therefore the line is adjusted accordingly. For instance, the San Diego Padres are 21-12 at home, up +5.6 units, 28-20 against right-handed starters, showing +6.3 units in profit, and 15-12 against division rivals but only showing a profit of +1.3 units. While the Padres are not "America's team," backing them over the long run has been nothing but profitable. With more than half the season remaining, you can bet that some other teams like the Padres are ready to quietly make some noise. Join The Iron Horse (Carlo Campanella) right here for daily Guaranteed Selections