Winning with America's Pastime March 2004 The Cincinnati Kid explains everything you need to know about wagering on baseball games -   Wow! Baseball what a sport! Think about it for a moment; what other type of investment can produce a net return yet lose more than you win? Huh - what did you say? I said “Baseball what a sport!” Ask yourself these questions: What sport asks you to only win the game? What sport allows you to return more than your initial investment per win? Baseball is the answer. What a sport! Welcome sports fans! You are about to discover a whole new ballgame and its America’s pastime…America’s game. It is the only business in America that is exempt from Ant-trust laws. Could that exemption be the reason more work stoppage rumors are present in the media today? Well at any rate, I am MJR a.k.a. the Cincinnati Kid. I want to extend my thanks to you for taking the time to further help educate yourself about the wonderful money making opportunities that abound in the game of baseball. Understanding how to bet the sport is the first essential ingredient to collecting MLB profits. In the game of baseball, runs are hard to manufacture. Hence, the betting line, or spread, is represented by money lines, which are converted into fractions. They are labeled ‘the odds on the game’. The odds tell the player the linesmaker’s opinion of who will win the game, and how easily, and distinguishes the favorite and the underdog in the game. The greater the odds on the game the greater the mismatch between the two teams. Lets breakdown the difference between betting the favorite vs. the underdog. The chart listed below will aid you in understanding the realm of betting a favorite vs. an underdog. Keep this chart handy - you can refer to this all season long. Fraction Spoken Money or Odds 11-10 11 to 10 $1.10 6-5 6 to 5 $1.20 5-4 5 to 4 $1.25 13-10 13 to 10 $1.30 7-5 7 to 5 $1.40 3-2 3 to 2 $1.50 8-5 8 to 5 $1.60 17-10 17 to 10 $1.70 9-5 9 to 5 $1.80 19-10 19 to 10 $1.90 2-1 2 to 1 $2.00 11-5 11 to 5 $2.20 12-5 12 to 5 $2.40 13-5 13 to 5 $2.60 14-5 14 to 5 $2.80 3-1 3 to 1 $3.00 Betting the Favorite: When a player chooses to wager on a favorite in the game of baseball, they are usually siding with the better team in the game. If a player chooses to wager on a favorite this equates to a player always risking more than the return will provide. The greater the odds for the favorite, the greater the risk is for the player. When a player wins betting a favorite, their maximum return is simply the amount wagered. If the player loses, betting a favorite their loss includes the initial investment plus the listed odds for that particular team. This is known as the vigorish. If the New York Yankees are playing at home vs. the Tampa Bay Devil Rays the odds will be higher than the Yanks hosting the Red Sox. The chances of the Devil Rays beating the Yanks are a lot less than the Red Sox chances of winning. Therefore, if the player wants to risk the Yanks to beat the Devil Rays they will have to pay a lot more money should the Yankees lose. Vise versa, the Red Sox beating the Yanks will not cost as much if the player suffers defeat. The Yanks at home vs. the Devil Rays would probably produce odds of 2 to 1, whereas the Yanks at home vs. the Red Sox would produce odds of 7 to 5 or 13 to 10. Betting the Underdog: An underdog player in the game of baseball can finish under .500 and still return a profit. This is made possible because the return on investment always surpasses the initial risk when you win a game. Therefore, a person can finish dead even for the season and still make money if he bets underdogs. In 1999, I finished 20 games under .500 and returned $956 of profit for the season. When a bettor makes a wager on the underdog and loses, they only lose their initial investment. If the bettor wins they return the amount wagered plus the odds minus the vig. The vig is calculated by either a $.10 or $.20 line. It is imperative that an underdog player finds an outlet yielding a $.10 line. It is readily available and it will greatly benefit you in the end to acquire a .$10 line. The Wide Line or the Daily Newspaper Line: The daily sports page prints a line for baseball and it is commonly referred to ‘the wide line’. The wide line represents the outcome of a player’s transaction for both the favorite and the underdog and it represents $.20 for the vig. The wide line lists the odds for the favorite first and the underdog second. It will look something like this: New York 15 / 13 Boston New York is the favorite and the home team in the game and vice versa for Boston. If a player chooses to wager on the Yanks, they will risk $150.00 per $100.00 invested. If the Yanks win the game, the player’s return is $100.00. Moreover, if the player loses they give up $150.00. If the player chooses to wager on the underdog (which is Boston) and they lose, the loss tallies $100.00. Now the tricky part - betting the underdog and winning. Since the wide line uses a $.20 line you must subtract $.20 for every $1.00 bet to determine your winnings. The odds on the Red Sox are 13, which equals $1.30. So if the player wagers $100.00 on the Red Sox and wins the player returns $130.00 for every $100.00 wagered. The net return is $30.00. Again, the wide line is already computed into the player’s potential return if they choose the underdog and win. If the player chooses the favorite and loses, the price to pay is listed which in this case is $150.00. When looking at a line printed on the web from a sports book or getting the daily line from your outlet, the vig is not factored into the odds. The odds are listed for the favorite and depending on your vig, you must factor the vig into the underdog play. Lets look at some quick examples of baseball tickets from both sides of the play: Favorite Ticket (Based on $.10 Line): Team Odds Fav/Dog Risk Lose Win New York 9-5 Favorite $180 $180 $100 Atlanta 7-5 Favorite $140 $140 $100 Arizona 3-2 Favorite $150 $150 $100 Obviously, the ticket is littered with good teams but they occasionally lose. You will notice the total risk for all three plays is significantly higher than the total possible return. The total risk equals $470.00 and the total possible return equals $300.00. Now you see how the favorite player can be ruined in just a few short days. Also creates a necessity to win more games than he loses! The favorite player must win at least two of these games listed above to return a profit. Now lets look at the other side of the ticket: Underdog Ticket (Based on $.10 Line): Team Odds Fav/Dog Risk Lose Win Cleveland 8-5 Underdog $100 $100 $150 Milwaukee 3-2 Underdog $100 $100 $140 Detroit 19-10 Underdog $100 $100 $180 Quite surprisingly, you will notice the nice potential return when wagering on the underdog and collecting winners. Reversing the theory for betting underdogs vs. favorites, the return is significantly higher compared to the risk. The total risk for this ticket is $300.00 and the total return equals $470.00. Say the player loses Cleveland and Milwaukee, while he wins with Detroit. The player’s total loss is $20.00 and he went 1-2. On the flip side, using the example from the Favorite Ticket, if the player cashed only one of the three plays it would be quite devastating to his pocketbook. Say the player wins New York and loses Arizona and Atlanta, the total loss equals $190.00 and yet he still cashed the biggest favorite. It doesn’t take a scientist to formulate playing underdogs is far more advantageous than playing favorites. Let me share with you a unique way for a favorite player to minimize his losses while still playing steep chalk (favorites of 3 - 2 or higher). It is called a parlay. A parlay is a play that combines two teams and they both must win for the player to cash the ticket. Parlays are often thought of as sucker plays. It is hard enough to win a solo game let alone two. There is smart way to play parlays, and a frivolous way to spend your money. Normally a player must cash 2 out of 5 parlays when using the standard 110 to 100 or 11 to 10 betting line. If the player is playing strictly favorites in the parlays, the numbers of wins remains the same. If the player chooses to include a dog in the parlay the number of wins will often times be reduced to sustain a profit margin. Here is a quick example of hiding the juice for the favorite player involving a parlay: Parlay Ticket: Regular Side Plays: Team Odds Fav/Dog Risk Lose Win New York 9-5 Favorite $180 $180 $100 Atlanta 7-5 Favorite $140 $140 $100 Parlay Example: Team Odds Fav/Dog Risk Lose Win NYY/ATL ($1.55/$1.71) Fav/Fav $100 $100 $165.05 When betting two moderate favorites in a parlay, the player will return slightly more money than initially risked. The return varies upon the price of the favorite. The larger the favorite is, the less the return. In this case a 9 – 5 favorite parlayed to a 7 – 5 favorite will return approximately $165.05 per $100.00 wagered. You can see BoDog’s complete parlay grid by Clicking Here. The significance of playing a parlay with two favorites is simply hiding the juice. There is a drawback, but only if your ticket splits, cashing 1 of the 2 plays. Nevertheless, even if that is the case, the player was never meant to make a profit. The player can maximize their potential for return while minimizing their potential for risk. Let’s say a player takes New York and Atlanta as two separate plays. New York will cost the player $190.00 if they lose and Atlanta will cost $160.00 if they lose (playing each for $100.00). If the player splits the two games, they could lose either $90.00 or $60.00. If the player loses both selections, the total loss equals $350. If the player decided to parlay the two teams and loses both selections, their total monies lost would equal their initial risk, which in this case is $100.00. Which would you rather lose $350.00 or $100.00? The only downside of the parlay is if the two selections split. Essentially, if the plays split the total loss would be less if played separately, ultimately though the player would still lose money. If both plays win in the parlay, the return is greater than the initial investment. If the player chose to make two separate wagers and won, the return would equal the initial investment. The bottom line with playing a parlay is that a player will lose more money if he splits the plays (only if both selections are less than 2-1 favorites) in a parlay vs. playing them separately. Although, the player’s return is far greater than the initial investment when they win a parlay. Play smart when playing a parlay. As I said, it is hard enough to win one game let alone win them both. This is a way to hide some vig if you like playing big favorites, which generally win more than they lose. There are also two ways to make a wager on a baseball game. The first is called action. An action bet is a wager that involves the team only. It doesn’t matter who pitches for the team the player decides to wager. And of course, the player must win the game. The second type of wager is called listing or specifying a pitcher or boxing both pitchers (specifying the starting pitcher for the team the player wagers on and the opponents listed starting pitcher). Example: Specifying only one pitcher: The player takes the Yanks and specifies Mussina. Mussina must throw the first pitch for the Yanks at the start of the opponents first inning. Boxing both pitchers: The player takes the Yankees and they are playing Boston. The player takes the Yankees with Mussina vs. Boston with Martinez. Both Mussina and Martinez must throw the first pitch for their respective teams at the start of the opponents first inning. In either case, if the pitcher(s) is/are scratched for whatever reason, the bet is cancelled and the player has no wager on the game. If the player boxes the pitchers then both pitchers must throw the first pitch for each team for the player to have a wager. In the event that either pitcher is scratched, again the player’s bet is cancelled and they have no wager on the game. It is up to the player to make a new wager if they hear of a pitching change (for either team if they boxed the play) in time before the game begins. I feel it is important to list at least the pitcher for the team I want to play because pitching is by far the most import parameter when handicapping the game of baseball. There are three critical components when it comes to handicapping the diamond. They are: Pitching, Hitting and Bullpens. Defense also plays an important part but is difficult to handicap as opposed to the three above-mentioned factors. Let’s take a look at all three individually and how they impact the game. Pitching: This is the number one element of the game. It all begins and ends with pitching. When a person is reviewing the odds on the games, they will notice the team, the price of the game and two listed pitchers. A player has the option to wager on a team, a team with the specified pitcher or to box both pitchers. As mentioned above if the listed pitcher is specified, he must throw the first pitch to have a bona fide wager. It’s the same for the boxed wager. Often handicappers begin their research based on the pitcher(s) scheduled to start the game. During the course of a season, barring any major injuries, a pitcher will make roughly 30 starts for his team. Keep in mind, baseball plays the longest schedule of any sport, thus it will produce the most streaks, both good and bad, during the course of the season. Therefore, pitchers will find a groove for a period of time that will provide a trend or pattern. Charting a pitchers performance is a tumultuous task, but if you are fortunate enough to have a thorough daily sports page, you will be able to isolate these emerging trends. The USA Today is an excellent resource because they will list a recent span of the pitchers outings. Some handicappers like to gauge a pitchers performance spanning his last five starts. If you, the handicapper, choose to chart five, four, three or two starts, then the main point of concern is to stay consistent with the research to make a qualitative analysis. In other words, don’t change the formula in mid-season! When charting a pitcher it is important to focus on his innings pitched vs. the hits and walks allowed. This is referred to AHWG, average hits to walks per game. Runs scored and earned runs are not as important as you might think. When analyzing the AHWG, a pitcher is considered to have great command if he owns a 1 to 1 or better ratio during the allotted period of charting his performance. Any ratio above 2 to 1 is considered a lack of command or a struggling pitcher. Isolating a pitcher who is favored and owns a ratio of 2 to 1 or higher during his recent qualifying number of starts vs. a pitcher who owns a ratio of better numbers would be considered a starting point for value. These situations will not occur everyday, but often enough if you keep researching as the season progresses. Hitting: The next component is Hitting. Much like a pitcher streaking during the course of a season, teams hitting performances will fluctuate as well. A handicapper will find that a team will collectively streak, good and bad, when it comes to producing runs during the course of a season. The critical factor in this area is to define a ‘magic’ number to determine an over - under for each league. This ‘magic’ number is an arbitrary number that will determine a team’s production for a certain period of time. An example would be five runs as the ‘magic’ number for the American League. If a team scores more than five runs in a game it is considered an ‘Over’ for that team. Vice versa if the team scores less than five runs. If the team scores exactly five runs, then it is considered a push. During a ten game span, a handicapper would add up the ‘Overs’ and ‘Unders’ and the pushes. This will illuminate a teams production that will allow the handicapper to tie this component to the pitching match up to further aid his analysis. For example, let’s say the Oakland Athletics are playing at the Detroit Tigers. Oakland is starting Heredia and Detroit is starting Moehler. Heredia’s form is 1.5 to 1 and getting stronger. Moehler’s form is 1.75 to 1, getting worse, and the Tigers hitting is 3-7 (meaning three ‘Overs’ and seven ‘Unders’ in the last ten games. A handicapper would want to think twice about playing the Tigers without an out of form pitcher and an ‘under’ hitting team - especially if the Tigers are favored to win the game. Bullpens: The final component to handicapping the diamond is the Bullpens. During the last ten years, the bullpen has become an integral part of the game. Twenty years ago, a reliever did not have as much impact on the game as they do today. Often while listening to a game, I will hear an announcer say…’All the Indians need is to get out of this inning and bring in the closer for the ninth’. It is not to often that a pitcher will go the distance today. Pitchers are not as strong as they used to be. I can remember baseball historian accounts of a team carrying a four-man rotation and maintaining seven to ten pitchers. Today some ball clubs staff more than half the team with pitchers. At any rate, the bullpen is vital in the game today. When analyzing the bullpen, it is much like the starting pitcher. For the pen, look at the collective team effort of all the pitchers rather than just one reliever’s outing. If the bullpen comes on to pitch three innings in a game using four different pitchers they are grouped together as one pitcher for handicapping purposes. Now using the same parameters as the pitching AHWG, add the hits and walks allowed by the collective group and compare the numbers to innings pitched. If all four pitchers threw a total of three innings and allowed two hits and one walk, this would equate to a 1 to 1 ratio for that outing. Instead of looking at the 5-2 game span, use a ten game barometer to determine the ratio. If a team allows a 2 to 1 ratio in any given outing, it qualifies as a bust or a bad outing. Now look at the entire ten game span, if a bullpen busts in three out of five, four out of six, or five out of ten outings, they are considered a ‘bad’ bullpen until they correct their command and start getting batters out. Reverse the theory, if they are ‘good’ or ‘in form’ in any of the combos mentioned above, they are considered a ‘good’ bullpen. Now lets add all three components together. Example: The Athletics are playing in Detroit and Heredia is opposing Moehler. Heredia’s form is 1.5 to 1 vs. Moehler’s 1.75 to 1 ratio. The A’s are 7-3 hitting vs. the Tigers 2-8 hitting. The A’s pen is in ‘good’ form while the Tigers have busted in three of their last five outings, labeling them a ‘bad’ pen. The Tigers are favored in the game as a 7-5 or $1.40 prop. Now tie in a few trends from the season like: in Heredia’s seven starts this year, the road team is 6-1 and the Tigers are 4-10 so far vs. right-handers. This is the making for a solid play on the A’s in the contest. With solid, logical applications added to your arsenal of handicapping such as the examples listed above, the player will find many more pleasing nights reviewing the final scores. The player must remember though, baseball is a funny game, weird bounces inconsistent strike zones by the various umpires; hit batsmen and errors all play a factor. Aside from the unknown, the player can add fuel to his decisions with the solid aspects mentioned here in this article to aid in the quest of accomplishing a successful baseball campaign. Enjoy the season and don't forget to check-in for The Kid's Guaranteed Selections - Remember you must WIN or there is no charge!!