Baseball - When to Take Dogs: - Bryan Leonard July 2004 I’ve found that inexperienced sports bettors have trouble taking dogs, especially in baseball. Favorites are no problem. It’s easy to spot games that favored teams should win, especially with the better starting pitcher. But identifying dogs and getting the courage and confidence to back them often takes time. With that in mind, here are a few tips on what I look for when assessing to back a live underdog. Are They Hitting Well Over the Last Seven Games? A team may have a terrible batting average on the season, but what interests me more is what have they done over the last week. Individual players can begin to get hot just as slumping star players will begin to crawl out of a slump at some point. The Yankees were a great example this season. The star-studded lineup was awful offensively in the first month of the season. Derek Jeter couldn’t buy a base hit and A-Rod was booed unmercifully everywhere on the road. But New York busted out of that slump after a while. A good handicapper tracks individual players as well as team batting averages daily. Other times, teams will bench guys who haven’t been productive and give bench players or Triple A kids a shot. You have to be on top of your game at all times to beat the bookies. Home / Away Play: This requires breaking down teams and players by how they perform both home and away. I’ve mentioned this many times, but it’s worth repeating: One team can perform very well on a regular basis at home and appear to be a completely different team on the road. If I see the Colorado Rockies as a home dog, for example, I look carefully at the game and decide if it’s worth a play. If I see the Rockies as a road dog, I’m much less likely to play them because they have a history of playing very poorly away from home. Colorado is the most distinct and extreme example of home and away performance disparity, but there are many other teams that fall into this category. Again, do your homework daily to keep up on these teams (and players), and you can find spots where the dog offers value, both home and away. Runs Scored on the Road: Often I find that some teams simply can’t hit or score runs on the road. They are often road dogs, and one must be careful when preparing to back them. However, some teams have just as productive an offense on the road as they do at home. This is very significant. Some teams rely on their home park to help them score runs, so they can be a liability on the road. You can find out by simply examining their average runs scored home and away. If a team is just as good offensively on the road as at home, you can find good spots to back them as a road dog, providing they are a competitive road team. Teams like the Red Sox and Rockies are significantly better offensively at home, taking advantage of their hitter-friendly parks, so they can be worth a play as a home dog. Pitcher Home / Away Performance: The home / road breakdowns on pitchers are especially fascinating, offering not only insight into what makes certain pitchers tick, but even where linemakers come up with some of their numbers, both sides and totals. Jose Lima started 6-2 for the Dodgers. What was evident from breaking down the numbers was that Lima, always a great control pitcher, took full advantage of huge Dodger stadium. He started 4-0 at home (2.50 ERA) where he held opponents to a .221 batting average. Yet, on the road, a very different pitcher emerged, one who was very hittable. Lima had a 5.63 road ERA where opponents hit .284 off him. You need to break down all players, not just pitchers, carefully like this. So, if Lima is a road underdog, for example, I might be less inclined to back L.A. But if he’s a home underdog, then it might be time to take a serious look at backing him and the Dodgers. 50-50 Chance: Sometimes after doing all the research and compiling data, I find that a game seems to be rated evenly. For instance, the pitchers are comparable, the visiting team is able to score consistently on the road, and both teams have been playing well over the last week. Yet, in what should be roughly a pick ‘em game, the home team is a considerable favorite. Naturally, this would be the time to back the underdog, as there is value. In short, if a game is rated evenly and either team has a 50-50 chance, in my judgment, of winning, then I’m getting extra value with +135 or +140 underdogs. East Coast, West Coast Trip: Long road trips are common over the course of 162 games. Visiting teams that are favored despite flying a long way can offer good go-against spots. When the Red Sox are playing on Monday, for example, then traveling all the way to Anaheim to play the next night, they could be favored with one of their top pitchers going. But that travel-factor could give a significant edge to the home underdog. More so than if, say, the Indians are flying to play the White Sox the next night. Keep tabs on how many time zones a team may be crossing and if they are playing in a back-to-back spot. If A Pitcher is Hot: This appears obvious, though it is a sometimes overlooked area. A pitcher may have a poor overall ERA, but I look at his last three or four starts to see if he’s as consistently bad as his overall numbers suggest. Many times, particularly with young pitchers, you find hurlers who are getting significantly better. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are a good example. They have a very young staff and last month the whole team went on a long winning streak that surprised the baseball world. Obviously, the young pitchers were throwing much better during that streak than they had been back in May, so a hot pitcher as an underdog can offer solid betting value. Get Bryan Leonard's daily Guaranteed Selections right here - Remember, you MUST WIN or there is no charge